Summary

From 3–9 September 2025 the centre of gravity was utterly Asian: Beijing's Victory Parade brought together over two dozen leaders such as Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin and was concurrently a display of firepower. From a DF-61 ICBM to new drones, telegraphing a hardened China, Russia, North Korea axis; even Victorian former premier Daniel Andrews's appearance highlighted the tug-of-war in US-aligned democracies between engagement and values.

Washington, in turn, threatened "phase two" sanctions on Russia as Moscow instigated the war's largest drone strike yet, underscoring the manner in which instruments of coercion and battlefield realities are diverging; Nepal teetered from fatal protests against a social-media blackout through a sudden shift in course in policy and the resignation of the prime minister; Israel declared an evacuation of Gaza City ahead of stepped-up strikes; Europe nursed wounds from a US–EU trade deal many saw as cringe-worthy; and Indonesia shuffled the cabinet in the midst of turmoil, capping a day in which France's Bayrou and Japan's Ishiba resigned.

Analysis

For Tokyo, Ishiba's departure threatens short-term immobilisation at the very moment the Beijing triangle tightens the threat perimeter for the home islands; tighter US coordination, more rapid missile-defence and navy expenditure, and still sharper crisis-management towards Taiwan and the East China Sea are in the pipeline.

For Australia, Beijing's parade and Andrews's visit will sharpen a domestic debate underway: how to bank earnings from your largest customer while double-downing on deterrence via AUKUS, Japanese connections and Southeast Asian statecraft; Canberra will stress defence industry collaboration and resilience (energy, critical minerals, cyber) while shifting language to keep open channels of commerce. For now Australia will rely on their relations built within the nations of the Indo-Pacific for matters of security and stability within the region after China’s proud statement. As recent reports have shown PM Anthony Albanese on a trip across the Pacific Islands before the Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Solomon Islands to take place till the 12th of September.

For the rest of the world, the week confirmed a fracturing order: great-power blocs hardening, middle powers hedging, and domestic legitimacy shocks (Nepal, France) constraining foreign policy room; Europe will debate strategic autonomy more urgently as Ukraine grinds on and public skepticism of US-led deals grows, the Middle East risks fresh humanitarian and energy reverberations from Gaza, and the Global South’s largest democracy-dense arc (from Indonesia through South Asia) becomes the decisive arena where connectivity, coercion and coalition-building will set the tempo of the next decade.